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If the research firm’s $190 billion taker volume estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than eightfold increase from the $22 billion taker turnover seen last year.
Potentially boding well for the Macquarie forecast are at least two factors. First, there are signs of turnover increases across a variety of yes/no exchanges. Second, volume surged to start September with those spikes arriving even before the NFL season kicked off.
As Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon points out, prediction markets generated $4.3 billion in taker volume during the first week of September without any help from the NFL, building on momentum from the 2026 World Cup. However, the NFL’s impact was immediate, with taker volume hitting a daily record during Week 1 of the campaign.
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The Monday Powerball drawing had players competing for a jackpot of $314 million with a cash value of $133.8 million. In order to win, players had to correctly match all six winning numbers. The white winning numbers for the September 21 drawing were 2, 7, 9, 17, and 58. The red Powerball, on the other hand, was 20, while the Power Play multiplier stood at 2x.
Unfortunately, a jackpot win did not occur, although the game continued to award smaller prizes to players across the US and UK. As mentioned, a second Match 5 win happened in the UK, where a lucky player succeeded in matching all five winning numbers to redeem a $1 million payout. The drawing did not have a Match 5 + Power Play win of $2 million.
At the same time, 14 players matched four white numbers plus the Powerball, which netted them tier three prizes. As a result, 8 players won $50,000 each, while the remaining 6 took home $100,000 each instead, thanks to Power Play.
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“Just better margins,” he says of that decision. “I think it’s more defendable. It’s the area that fewer people can do well. So I think it’s more defendable margin, more ability to get long-term contracts and beneficial positions.”
Singles can be profitable, but parlay pricing requires the market maker to calculate the correlations between multiple outcomes and respond dynamically to individual requests. It is a skill set built over years in the sharper regions of the existing sports betting ecosystem.
Marantelli identifies White Swan and Susquehanna as two firms operating at industrial scale in parlays, with Jump Trading, Mojo and DL Trading among the possible leading group. Below them are numerous smaller syndicates, some managing between $5 million and $10 million, alongside sports-specific specialists.