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“Both the Third Circuit and the District of New Jersey side with Kalshi, because the CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction prompt state law,” Lever said, adding that “nothing in New Jersey’s filing” changes that view.

Each Supreme Court term begins on the first Monday in October and runs through late June or early July. The court typically receives about 7,000-8,000 writ petitions and grants about 80, or 1%, each term. Four of the nine sitting justices must vote to accept a case. Five current justices – Chief Justice John Roberts and Justices Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Elena Kagan, Neil Gorsuch and Sonia Sotomayor – were on the bench in 2018 for the PASPA case.

There are no SCOTUS-prediction market contracts currently on Kalshi but Polymarket lists a 41% probability that the court will accept an event contract case by 31 December.

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“Cirsa has incredible knowledge of the market, the consumers in general, also of the business. You will see a company with a huge understanding of the market, of the consumers, with an incredible retail platform, which can be leveraged for online.

Cirsa also holds a presence in Italy, and Angelozzi was asked whether this could cause any regulatory discomfort or revenue attrition.

But he said he was not concerned. “On the Italian antitrust, we don’t think we are in a risky situation because Italy is not the core of this deal and this doesn’t change the level of concentration in the country and will still be below 40% in each relevant market. So we don’t see that.

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Participants broadly accepted the principle that gambling information should be transparent and accessible, but many reported difficulty interpreting or using it effectively in practice. 

Technical data such as odds and rules were often obscured by delivery timing that came too late to influence decisions. 

This sense of understanding was also described as something that needed to be maintained continuously, rather than achieved only once and then relied upon.