Classic Solitaire

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“We expect new products such as KPI markets, which allow users to trade a single corporate metric, such as production, deliveries, or subscriber growth, rather than the stock price itself,” observe the analysts. “Further, perp futures are expanding from crypto to commodities and single stock perps.”

Some exchange operators already filed plans to introduce KPI-linked event contracts. Those derivatives would be tied to metrics such as corporate earnings or, in more nuanced cases, Apple iPhone shipments or Tesla deliveries — just two examples — in a given quarter.

While sports event contracts remain the headline-grabbers for prediction market operators, there’s evidence that other categories are experiencing growth. As Bernstein points out, cryptocurrency event contracts account for at least 20% of the turnover on the two largest prediction markets.

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The Wednesday announcement promised the merger of the two listed gaming giants would create the second-largest listed global gaming and sports betting operator, with a pro forma adjusted EBITDA of approximately €2 billion ($2.3 billion).

Angelozzi, who is set to lead the combined company as CEO, told analysts on the post-announcement call that the deal was expected to be a “low-risk proposition” given the consistent growth demonstrated by both Lottomatica and Cirsa in recent years.

Between H1 2024 to H1 2026, Lottomatica and Cirsa have grown their revenues at CAGRs of 13% and 11% respectively.

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Lottomatica will absorb Cirsa though an EU cross-border statutory merger, with Lottomatica continuing as the surviving entity.

Once the deal is completed, current Lottomatica shareholders are expected to own around 67.5% of the share capital, with Cirsa’s shareholders owning the remaining 32.5%.

Cirsa shareholders will receive 0.668 newly issued Lottomatica shares for each of their shares in Cirsa.